Atlantic Division

  1. Boston Celtics X
  2. Philadelphia 76ers X
  3. Toronto Raptors
  4. New York Knicks
  5. New jersey Nets

Central Division

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers X
  2. Chicago Bulls X
  3. Detroit Pistons
  4. Indiana Pacers
  5. Milwaukie Bucks

Southeast Division

  1. Orlando Magic X
  2. Atlanta Hawks X
  3. Washington Wizards X
  4. Miami Heat X
  5. Charlotte Bobcats

(X = playoff team)

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics:

Regardless on if Kevin Garnett is healthy or not the Celtics should win this division fairly easily.  The thing that hinges on his health is how far they can go in the playoffs.  If he’s healthy they are title contenders, if he’s not they won’t make it out of the second round.  Rajon Rondo is an enigma personality wise but he continues to develop in to one of the league’s top point guards.  He always has an awkward look on his face and there have been non-stop rumors of him being a weirdo in the locker room and Doc Rivers wanting to trade him.  My guess is that he ends up staying on the team and playing like an All-Star.  Ray Allen is in a contract year and would like to put up some big numbers for one more big pay day.  If he can stay on the court he’ll keep shooting the lights out and get his money.  Paul Pearce continues to be one of the hardest working players in the league on both ends of the floor.  His years of being elite are dwindling, but he’ll still be up there this season.  What I am most curious about with this Celtics team is how good Rasheed Wallace will be for them.  You have to figure that he’ll be motivated to impress his new teammates and that he’ll be a huge help off the bench and starting when KG can’t go.

Philadelphia 76ers:

Many think the loss of Andre Miller is going to hurt the 76ers.  I don’t see it helping them, but they still should be a playoff team.  We’ll see how Lou Williams handles being the everyday point guard.  He’s more of a shoot first guy but Philly has one of the best passing shooting guards in the league with Arizona Wildcat Andre Iguodala.  Iggy will make his first All-Star team this year with his all around game.  He’s one of the best athletes in league and will continue to flourish in the up and down system.  Thaddeus Young and Marreese Speights will both get a year better and are going to turn in to good players.  Elton Brand was the worst free agent signing of last season and he’ll continue to be a thorn in the side of the 76ers financial flexibility, but he should be healthy this year and if he is will be a major contributor.  The future for Philly isn’t amazing, but they have personnel to run with most teams on most nights.

Toronto Raptors:

The Raptors have a dilemma.  They have one All-Star player in Chris Bosh.  Bosh is a free agent at the end of this year and most don’t think he wants to stick around in Canada at the end of the season.  Their team is very mediocre.  Do they hold on to him and push for a playoff spot or do they trade him for probably less than he’s worth so they at least get something for him?  I would probably lean towards trading him.  They’ll have some money next year, but there aren’t a ton of free agents clamoring to move up to Toronto.  Who do they expect to sign?  May as well force someone to move up there via a trade.  I’ll pretend for the moment that he’ll be there all year and still say it’s not likely they make the playoffs.  They’ll be interesting to watch.  They have a lot of European players and plan to play a European style of basketball; filling the court with shooters and running plays to make sure one is always open.  Jose Calderon is an excellent and rock solid point guard who makes very little mistakes.  You can say the same thing about Jarrett Jack who is better defensively but will be playing a lot at the 2; so he may have a difficult time guarding some of the bigger players.  While Bargnani will never live up to being a number 1 overall pick, he’s a great shooting big man and turning into a pretty good overall player.  Hedo Turkoglu is a little overrated right now due to his very good performance in the playoffs last year, but he does fit this system nicely.  He’s a great passer and good shooter, exactly what they need out of their small forward.  The ceiling for this team is probably a 6 or 7 seed in the playoffs, but depending on what happens to Bosh the floor is a lot lower than the ceiling is high.

New York Knicks:

Year one without Isaiah Thomas has come and gone and we are now entering year two.  The team isn’t any better but that’s actually not the point.  This season will be more about getting ready for next season than trying to win any games.  The Knicks will compete for one of the worst records in the league this year and sit on their hands and close their eyes until it’s over.  After the 2009/2010 NBA Champion is crowned, they’ll open their eyes and find themselves with a half empty roster (or half full as GM Donnie Walsh will lead you to believe) and will immediately begin recruiting the top Free Agents in the league.  The Knicks have roughly seven contracts coming off of the books after the season, just in time for Lebron, Wade, Bosh and many other stars who become free agents.  Their main goal this year will be to try to find someone to take the contracts of super busts Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries.  In the meantime Coach D’Antoni will have the team running and gunning and losing.  The hope is that last year’s rookie Danilo Gallinari shows that he can be a worthy running mate for one of the superstars next year.  Also being watched closely will be rookie Jordan Hill out of Arizona.  He can block shots, pull down boards and plays with ferocity.    He may never be an All-Star, but he will be a great complementary big man in the league that will pull down double-digit rebounds per game one day.  For now though, Knick fans should get as much ambien as they can and just try to sleep until June.

New Jersey Nets:

The Nets aren’t very good.  The most interesting thing about their season will probably be what happens after it’s over.  Much like the Knicks, the Nets have some money to spend in the off-season and will get a high pick in the lottery.  Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorav agreed to buy the team so they’ll have some more money to spend in the near future and he should help in getting the team moved to Brooklyn.  Brook Lopez is going to be a very good center and I expect big rebounding and blocks numbers from him.  He is much better than his sister Robyn.  Rookie Terrence Williams is quite possibly the heir-apparent to Ron Artest as the nuttiest guy in the league and has a chance to be really good.  He’s a guy to keep an eye on.  The guy that makes the team go though is still Devin Harris.  He’s an All-Star caliber player that gets hurt a lot, but when he’s on the court he flies all over the place and will orchestrate every play on offense.  All in all, it’s going to be ugly.  Yi Jianlian remains a huge bust and much of the season will involve talks of the team trying shed salary.  I really have nothing else to say about these guys.

Central Division

Cleveland Cavaliers:

The Cavs were my pick to win the title last year and they will be again this year.  I just think Lebron is that much better than everyone else.  The addition of Shaq will be more of a help in the playoffs than the regular season.  They don’t need him to be great in the regular season to get a high seed in the playoffs; they just need him to be great once they get there.  The rest of the supporting cast is good.  Mo Williams and Anthony Parker are both good shooters at the guard spots and Anderson Verejao brings a lot of energy at power forward.  The biggest questions for the Cavs is going to be will the distraction of Lebron’s impending free agency hurt the team mentally throughout the season.  There are quite a lot of teams including the Cavs who will be battling for his services next year.  I would love to see him stick around in Cleveland, but he may have better options elsewhere.  The summer of 2010 is going to be very interesting.

Chicago Bulls:

It’s hard to predict exactly how good the Bulls are going to be this year because there are a lot of ifs.  If Derrick Rose continues to get better, if Luol Deng is healthy, if John Salmons plays like he did last year and if Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah grow more and can man the post, the Bulls have a chance to be very good.  If only a couple of those things happen they should still be a playoff team.  The loss of Ben Gordan hurts, but the team has enough good shooting guards that they shouldn’t notice it too much.  I fully expect Rose to play like an All-Star or at least very close to one.  I can’t wait to see him play.  Noah and Thomas are going to have to be very good, because there isn’t a whole lot of help down low after them.  Like almost every team this season, there seems to be as much talk about next year as there is for this year.  The Bulls are one of those teams that will have a lot of money to spend on that big free agent class and who wouldn’t want to come and play with Rose.  There is plenty of talk of home town hero Wade coming to Chicago next season, but I don’t see it.  None the less, they will have plenty of other options.  The Bulls will have their moments this year where they’ll be fun to watch, but it’s more about the next five years than this year in Chicago.

Detroit Pistons:

The Pistons are starting Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown at the 4 and 5.  Brutal.  Wallace is a shell of what he was and Brown is one of the all time busts.  Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva are nice additions, but hardly enough to put this team over the edge.  Richard Hamilton isn’t anything more than a decent scorer at this point of his career and is being paid like an All-Star.  Tayshaun Prince is a solid player, but hardly worth mentioning.  The bright spot for the Pistons will be the improvement of Rodney Stukey.  I’m still not sure he’s a pure point guard, but he’s a good player who has a chance to become really good.  They aren’t going to be awful, but I expect them to miss the playoffs.  Hopefully for them, they can land a good lottery pick because they don’t have a ton of money to spend next year while a many of their Eastern rivals do. 

Indiana Pacers:

There is a lot to like about the Pacer’s star, Danny Granger but not a lot to like about the rest of the roster.  Granger is turning in to one of the league’s elite players but he doesn’t have a whole lot to work with.  Mike Dunleavy is returning early from his knee injury.  That’s going to help, how?  Dunleavy finally put up some good numbers the last couple of years, but he’s still a bust and still would do better in an NBA Jam head look-alike contest than he would in an NBA lineup.  He has the hugest head I have ever seen!  Troy Murphy is a good shooting big man, but he can’t defend any of the more athletic 4’s.  The development of Roy Hibbert will be essential for the interior defense.  TJ Ford when healthy is s till a good point guard.  I just don’t see this team being very good or good at all for that matter.  Sorry Danny, not enough help.

Milwaukie Bucks:

I read a story the other day saying that the Bucks are going to be better than people think.  Maybe Coach Scott Skiles wrote it, I didn’t bother looking because it’s flat out wrong.  The Bucks will be worse than you think.  They should get a top five pick next year which will help considering they will never be able to sign any free agent of consequence.  Part of me really wants Brandon Jennings fall on his face, but the other part is excited to see him play because of his flash and ability.  For those that don’t know, Jennings bailed out on his scholarship to the University of Arizona to get paid to play for a year in Italy.  Skipping college for Europe didn’t hurt him too badly in the draft, he was picked 8th overall.  Many people thought it would, including him apparently.  Although invited to the draft to sit in the green room and come up on stage to shake Commissioner Stern’s hand once a team called his name; Jennings and is camp declined to avoid any embarrassment of being called much later than originally thought.  In one of the weirdest draft day events I have ever seen, he showed up at the draft far after he was picked, got up on stage, put on the Bucks hat and shook Stern’s hand.  It was an awkward start to his NBA career to say the least.  None the less it sounds like he is going to get the starting job and from what I have heard he has played well in training camp.  Now it’s time to sit back and see how it plays out.  The Bucks really took a dump by letting Sessions and Villanueva go.  It left the cupboard bare of talent.  Michael Redd is back from (another) injury and it would be in the Bucks best interest to deal him.  My best advice for Milwaukie fans is to wait until Spring Training. 

Southeast Division

Orlando Magic:

How did last year’s Eastern Conference Champs get better than they were last year?  They replaced the overrated Turkoglu with the equally overrated but still better Vince Carter.  I have always considered Carter a heartless bum who will quit on his teammates at any time for any reason.  Regardless, you can’t question his scoring and natural ability.  He has all the talent but has never had the drive.  Maybe playing for a contender for the first time in years will get his head out of his ass.  Dwight Howard is the leader of this team and the beast of the league.  If he were ever able to get to 70% from the line he would have a chance to become an all-time top 5 center.  Surrounding his hugeness is a bunch of great athletes and shooters.  Rashard Lewis is one of the top 3-point shooters in the league and having Jameer Nelson healthy for the entire year will be a huge help.  They have depth on the bench and a top flight coach.  No one will be surprised if they not only are back in the Finals, but win it this time.

Atlanta Hawks:

My write up on the Hawks last year is probably just about identical to this year’s.  The starting lineup is loaded but the bench is non-existent.  The additions of Jamal Crawford in the backcourt and Joe Smith up front are an improvement but not enough of one to keep up with the Cavs, Magic and Celtics.   They really need to get some more out of Josh Smith.  He’s as physically gifted as anyone in the league and equally as mentally challenged.  I love Mike Bibby, but am not certain how much he has left in the tank.  I do think Marvin Williams and Al Horford both will take steps forward.  Joe Johnson is the team leader and a free agent at the end of the year.  I am not confident he will stay.  If Johnson bolts after the season and this is Bibby’s last as a really good player, this may be the Hawks last good year for a while.  Its familiar territory, isn’t it Atlanta?

Washington Wizards:

This entire season hinges on the health of the team’s three stars; especially Gilbert Arenas.  If Gilbert plays more than 70 games the Wizards will be good with a chance of being very good.  The health Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison is equally important, but Gilbert is the superstar and the heart and soul of the team.  When he’s right, he lighting quick, extremely strong and a deadly outside shooter.  There aren’t many players in the league as fun to watch.  The Wizards improved the supporting cast by trading their lottery pick for Randy Foye and Mike Miller.  This is huge for them considering what the Wizards were able to do two years ago when they just had the three guys and no one else worth a damn.  Another plus could be the development of big guys JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche.  By the way, I don’t care what the correct spelling of “Andre” is; it sounds more like it should be spelled “Andray”.  This should be how parents spell their little Andray’s names going forward.

Miami Heat:

From top to bottom this has to be the best overall division in the conference and maybe the league.  I have the Heat finishing 4th hear and making it in to the playoffs.  That means that if I’m right, only one team in this division will miss out.  More on them later.  Dwyane Wade is the second best player in the league after Lebron.  Last year he started hitting more 3-pointers making him more dangerous.  He’s one of those superstars who will be a free agent at the end of the year and I expect him to stay with Miami considering they will have enough for him and to sign another top flight player.  As for this year, Wade has limited help.  I think Michael Beasley will be better this year and start getting closer to fulfilling his promise.  He had some drinking issues over the summer and spent some time in a rehab center.  Apparently that’s behind, let’s hope so.  Mario Chalmers should be a serviceable point guard, especially because the ball will mostly be in Wade’s hands.  Jermaine O’Neal looks done.  If he’s  60% of what he used to be things will be a little brighter, but I don’t see it.

Charlotte Bobcats:

I had high hopes for the Bobcats last year, but even with the hot second half they were worse than I expected.  For a defensive team with not a lot of scoring, to trade their best scorer (Jason Richardson) made no sense to me.  The guy they need to trade is Raymond Felton.  He’s a decent point guard but is blocking a better and younger one from playing heavy minutes, DJ Augustine.  DJ may see a lot of time at shooting guard, but he needs to learn how to play the point if he is going to develop properly.  Trading Okafor for Tyson Chandler was a downgrade and done for financial reasons.  Gerald Wallace is a very good player and possible All-Star, but never stays healthy long enough to get the attention he probably should.  Coach Larry Brown has always been able to get the most out of below average teams, but the personnel here is pretty weak.  It’s too bad Michael Jordan can’t keep his hands off the team and let Larry make all the moves.  Jordan has proven to be worse at running teams than he is at giving hall of fame speeches.